Macroeconomic Consequences of the War in Ukraine on Central and Eastern European Economies: A SVAR Analysis
Résumé
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on the economies of Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania, using a SVAR model based on a similar analytical framework as that described in Bruhin et al. (2023)[3]. The exogenous shock is captured by the geopolitical risk index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) [4]. Simulations show that, by the end of 2022, the war contributed to a rise in inflation by 0.45-0.85 percentage points and a drop in GDP by 0.79-1.55 percentage points compared to the counterfactual "no-war" scenario. Our findings suggest a generally larger impact on economic activity in CEE countries compared to Western European economies, a result that can be attributed to the structural weaknesses of these economies, and to the geographic proximity to the conflict area, which led to a higher volatility of the series in the CEE region. Regarding inflation, the uncertainty bands suggest that the war's impact could have been larger, potentially reaching up to 3 percentage points.
Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
---|